I was interested to see this graph in a recent report, USDA Agricultural Projections to 2031.

What this says is that agricultural imports are soon expected to be greater than agricultural exports.

Within the next year or so, the United States will be a net importer of agricultural products.

As the report puts it:

Agricultural exports are expected to grow at an annual rate averaging 0.8 percent per year from 2021 through 2031. The value of U.S. agricultural imports is projected to increase by an average annual rate of 6 percent over that same period as domestic consumer spending is expected to remain strong over the next decade combined with domestic preferences for an array of agricultural goods that continue
to exceed domestic production.

I think we need to ask what this means for long-term food security in this country.

The next Farm Bill is under discussion.  It ought to deal with the question of how US agriculture can produce more food for people rather than feed for animals and fuel to cars.

I keep remembering a meeting I went to in Washington DC years ago, where a USDA official said that he did not think Americans should waste land for growing food when it could be done so much more cheaply elsewhere.   I hope USDA thinks differently now.

US food aid to other countries has long been criticized as proving more benefit to us than to whoever we are trying to help.

This is because our laws require at least half of the ships carrying food donations to be owned by Americans.  This rule can be waived in emergencies such as what’s happening in the Ukraine.

Senators Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Chris Coons (D-Del.) have introduced a resolution to waive this rule until early 2025.

What’s amazing about the rule is how much it costs.

USAID says it will cost $388 million to provide $282 million in food aid to Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Yemen.

A big part of the excess cost is due to cargo preference rules (fuel costs also contribute).

In 2015, the Government Accountability Office published an analysis which demonstrated

Cargo preference for food aid (CPFA) requirements increased the overall cost of shipping food aid by an average of 23 percent, or $107 million, over what the cost would have been had CPFA requirements not been applied…differences in the implementation of CPFA requirements by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) contributed to a higher shipping rate for USDA.

Needless to say, the US shipping industry opposes any change to the rules.

The reduction of cargo would only further endanger the jobs of civilian merchant mariners creating the distinct possibility that there will not be enough mariners to meet military surge and sustainment requirements for future military conflicts. When foreign flag shipping companies are currently making record profits amidst global supply chain disruptions, now is not the time to weaken critical policies that would come at the expense of American businesses and working families.

The study:  Daily consumption of cranberry improves endothelial function in healthy adults: a double blind randomized controlled trial.  Christian Heiss,  et al.  Food & Function.  2022;7.  DOI https://doi.org/10.1039/D2FO00080F

Objective: To investigate the vascular effects of acute and daily consumption of freeze dried whole cranberry in healthy men and how effects relate to circulating cranberry (poly)phenol metabolites.

Methods: A double-blind, parallel-group, randomized controlled trial was conducted in 45 healthy male adults randomly allocated to 1 month daily consumption of either cranberry (9 g powder solubilized in water equivalent to 100 g of fresh cranberries, 525 mg total (poly)phenols) or control (9 g powder, no (poly)phenols).

Results: Cranberry consumption significantly increased FMD [flow-mediated dilation].

Conclusions: Acute and daily consumption of whole cranberry powder for 1 month improves vascular function in healthy men and this is linked with specific metabolite profiles in plasma.

Funding: This study was funded by the Cranberry Institute and by the Research Committee of the Medical Faculty of Heinrich-Heine University Dusseldorf (grant number 9772574). The authors also acknowledge a Susanne Bunnenberg Heart Foundation grant to Dusseldorf Heart Centre.

Comment: I like cranberries.  Of course I consider them healthy to eat.  All fruits have health benefits.

But cranberry powder?

And cranberries are tart,; they need sugar.  Ocean Spray’s cranberry sauce recipe calls for one cup of sugar added to 12 ounces of cranberries.

Moderation, please!

The International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems has issued a  special report:

The report identifies four structural weaknesses that make foods systems vulnerable to price shocks

• Dependency on food imports
• Dependencies in production systems
• Opaque, dysfunctional, and speculation-prone grain markets
• Vicious cycles of conflict, climate change, poverty, and food insecurity

Doing something about these problems is a tall order.

The IPES-Food panel calls for urgent action to:

• support food importing countries (including through debt relief),
• curb excessive commodity speculation and enhance market transparency,
• reduce reliance on fertilizers and fossil energy in food production,
• build up regional grain reserves & food security response systems,
• and accelerate steps to diversify food production and restructure trade flows.

Here are:

• The special report
• The press release 

None of this stuff is on the market yet, which is good or bad depending on how you look on it.  Maybe it’s just me, but these in-the-works products seem weird beyond belief.

Here’s what I’ve collected recently.

• Human milk the next challenge for cellular ag: Why not make human milk in a lab? As improbable and far-fetched — and maybe even blasphemous — as it may seem, scientists are working on doing just that. More than that, some are predicting the final product will be available in three or four years. “Startups are racing to reproduce milk in the lab,”… Continue Reading
• Opalia’s Animal-Free Milk Is Now One Step Closer to Supermarket Shelves:  Canadian foodtech startup hits key milestone on the road to commercialization by eliminating fetal bovine serum from its cell-based milk manufacturing.
• Cultivated meat, cell-cultured meat, lab-grown meat? Comments submitted to USDA over how best to label meat and poultry made from animal cells grown outside of animals reflect the challenge facing US regulators as they seek to nail down nomenclature in this nascent market as startups in the space edge closer to commercialization…. Read more
• The Bloody Secret Behind Lab-Grown Meat: Maybe we can’t have our steak and eat it guilt-free, too.
• Making cultivated meat ‘bleed’ with red algae: ‘Even cell-based meat looks pale; it will need our solution’:  New red microalgae discovered by Israeli start-up Yemoja adds ‘bloody’ juiciness to plant-based burgers and steaks, as well as cultivated meat products…. Read more

Even weirder, but perhaps more palatable, is making protein out of air.

• How Air Protein is making the journey from concept to product: The startup that makes carbon dioxide into a meat analog has been turning science and the need for more sustainability into something co-founder and CEO Lisa Dyson says can feed the world.

And here is a report from Food and Water Watch

• ‘Lab Meat’ Industry is Big Ag in Disguise:  New research shows that plant-based meat props up industrial farm system.

Here’s a report from a House Subcommitteethe on the behavior of the meat packing industry during the Trump Administration.

The key findings:

• The Meatpacking Industry Had Notice of the Acute Risks the Coronavirus Posed to Workers in Meatpacking Plants.
  Meatpacking Companies’ Claims of an Impending Protein Shortage Were Flimsy if Not Outright False.
• Meatpacking Companies Successfully Enlisted Trump USDA Political Appointees to Advocate Against Health Protections for Workers, While Sidelining Career Staff.
• Meatpacking Companies Worked with Trump’s USDA to Force Meatpacking Workers to Stay on the Job Despite Unsafe Conditions.
• Meatpacking Companies Worked with USDA and the White House in an Attempt to Prevent State and Local Health Departments from Regulating Coronavirus Precautions in
  Plants.
• Meatpacking Companies Successfully Lobbied USDA and the White House to Issue an Executive Order Purporting to Insulate Them from State and Local Coronavirus
  Regulations and Liability for Worker Infections and Deaths.

And just to remind you what was at stake, from Leah Douglas’s reporting for the Food and Environment Reporting Network:

Here’s Leah Douglas’s analysis of this report in Reuters, where she now works.

In the meantime, the meat packers deny all of this.

At the end of April, the House Agriculture Committee held hearings on the effects of consolidation in the meat industry.  These were the result of complaints by ranchers that they have been squeezed out by meatpackers and are being forced to sell their animals at prices below their costs.

I’ve written previously about President Biden’s executive order on the meat industry, and about his concerns about lack of competition in that industry.

The hearings followed up on those themes: The CEOs of the four major meat packing companies testified in defense of their practices, and denied colluding on prices.

Should we believe them?

Why does this remind me of the cigarette CEOs denying that their products cause cancer?

If you want more details, here are the links (thanks to Jerry Hagstrom for collecting these at The Hagstrom Report on April 27).  His report is at this link.

• House Agriculture Committee hearing – An examination of price discrepancies, transparency, and alleged unfair practices in cattle markets (video)
• Coy Young, cow/calf producer, Blythedale, Mo.
• Gilles Stockton, cow/calf producer, Grass Range, Mont., on behalf of National Plains Research Council and Western Organization of Research Councils
• Don Schiefelbein, cattle producer and president of National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, Kimball, Minn.
• David MacLennan, CEO, Cargill Inc., Wayzata, Minn.
• Tim Schellpeper, CEO, JBS USA Holdings Inc., Greeley, Colo.
• Tim Klein, CEO, National Beef Packing Co. LLC, Kansas City, Mo.
• Donnie King, CEO, Tyson Foods, Springdale, Ark.

The White House says it is taking steps to alleviate the nationwide shortage of infant formula.

House speaker Nancy Pelosi has written a letter to democrats demanding action.

Nationwide shortage of infant formula?

As CBS News explained,

At retailers across the U.S., 40% of the top-selling baby formula products were out of stock as of the week ending April 24…Prices of baby formula, which three-quarters of babies in the U.S. receive within their first six months, have also spiked…Supply-chain snarls related to COVID-19 are contributing to the shortage of formula around the U.S. They include manufacturers having more difficulty procuring key ingredients, packaging hangups and labor shortages…In addition, a major baby formula recall in January exacerbated shortages.

I wrote about the Abbott recall earlier, on February 22 and March 8.

Politico’s Helena Bottemiller Evich has been following this story closely in Politico.  You can find her articles here.

Her writing is getting action.

For example, Representative Rosa deLauro released a whistleblower report warning about food safety concerns months before infants died and the FDA investigated.

Food safety lawyer Bill Marler posted a link to the redacted  whistleblower report.

He says: Mr. Abbott, you are going to jail for manufacturing tainted infant formula.

The legal jargon aside, if you are a producer of food and knowingly or not manufacturer and sell adulterated food, you can (and should) face fines and jail time.  For Abbott, at least 4 kids were sickened and of those two died, from drinking infant formula.

Here is the most recent inspection report at the plant – APPLIED – FOI II – BR Abbott Nutritions- FEI# 1815692 9-2021 EIR.

In the meantime, Bottemiller Evich keeps the focus on how hard this situation is for parents of infants with special nutritional needs.  She also has a Twitter thread on this “slow-moving train wreck.”  She reproduces this graphic from @erindataviz/@datasembly:

The Seattle Times has a particularly useful guide to what to do—and what not to do—if you can’t find the formula you need.

As to what this is really about, see:

The Morning.  This New York Times column attributes this particular shortage to general shortages, monopoly concentration in the formula business, bureaucratic inflexibility, and, most of all, American gerontocracy and overall indifference to the welfare of young children.

A blogger about the politics of monopoly, Matt Stoller, expands on these themes:  baby formula monopoly, FDA collusion, and USDA’s methods for dealing with infant formula in the WIC program (this last alone is reason to read this piece).  In response, the USDA says it is granting states flexibility in apply the WIC rules.

And the Cato Institute has an informative piece on trade restrictions that prevent import of formula from other countries, including the European Union; this pieces also discusses the WIC problem (Government is major buyer; Abbott is major supplier).

Comment: This is a really bad situation that is finally starting to get attention.  Babies are completely dependent on infant formula if they are not being breastfed.  It needs to contain all the right nutrients, but it also needs to be safe.

The FDA says it is taking steps to alleviate the formulat shortage.

Why hasn’t it acted more swiftly?  Perhaps because of what Bottemiller Evich wrote about previously?  See The FDA’s Food Failure.

Basically, we are seeing the results of unregulated monopolies and captured government.  With the most vulnerable members of society—and society’s future—at risk.

Additional links

• Letter from 8 Senators headed by Cory Booker to USDA Secretary Vilsack calling for greater formula competition
• Letter from USDA Secretary Vilsack calling on Abbott to provide rebates for competitive formula
• Politico: Senator Tammy Duckworth calls on the FTC to examine lack of competition in the formula market
• Center for Science in the Public Interest urges policymakers in Washington to deploy additional tools
• Congressional subcommittee to investigate shortages
• Background Press Call by Senior Administration Officials to Address Infant Formula Shortage
• Readout of President Biden’s Virtual Meetings with Retailers and Infant Formula Manufacturers
•  Associated Press — Parents swap, sell baby formula
• The New York Times — What Parents Need to Know
• USDA’s Q and A page about options for exchanging Abbott formula for other kinds 
• USDA’s page on the Abbott recall
• USDA’s guidance for keeping infants safe in the midst of formula shortages
• FDA’s details on Abbott product recalls
• CDC’s report on its Cronobacter investigations, now closed
• Wall Street Journal: What caused the baby formula shortage?
• Bill Marler: Abbott caused the infant formula crisi, but the FDA and public health enabled it
• Abbott and FDA agree on pathway to opening Sturgis MI plant
• Abbott denies its formulas were responsible in an 11-tweet Twitter thread

Additional links that came later

• The Washington Post – Biden invokes Defense Production Act to boost baby formula supply
• WhiteHouse.gov – Letter from President Biden to Secretary Xavier Becerra and Secretary Thomas Vilsack on addressing infant formula shortage  
• Fact sheet: President Biden announces new actions to address infant formula shortage
• Memorandum on the delegation of authority under the Defense Production Act to ensure an adequate supply of infant formula

Here’s a good one for my collection:

The Study: TRENDS IN ADDED SUGARS INTAKE AND SOURCES AMONG U.S. CHILDREN, ADOLESCENTS AND TEENS USING NHANES 2001-2018.  Laurie Ricciuto,Victor L. Fulgoni III, P. Courtney Gaine, Maria O. Scott, Loretta DiFrancesco. The Journal of Nutrition, Volume 152, Issue 2, February 2022, Pages 568–578, https://doi.org/10.1093/jn/nxab395 

• Background: Over the past 2 decades, there has been an increased emphasis on added sugars intake in the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA), which has been accompanied by policies and interventions aimed at reducing intake, particularly among children, adolescents, and teens.
  Objectives: The present study provides a comprehensive time-trends analysis of added sugars intakes and contributing sources in the diets of US children, adolescents, and teens …focusing on variations according to sociodemographic factors.
• Methods: Data from 9 consecutive 2-year cycles of the NHANES were combined…Trends were also examined on subsamples stratified by sex, race and ethnicity…income (household poverty income ratio), food assistance, physical activity level, and body weight status.
• Results: From 2001–2018, added sugars intakes decreased significantly…mainly due to significant declines in added sugars from sweetened beverages.
• Conclusions: Declines in added sugars intakes were observed among children, adolescents, and teens…Despite these declines, intakes remain above the DGA recommendation; thus, continued monitoring is warranted.
• Support: The funding for this research was provided by The Sugar Association, Inc. The views expressed in the manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of The Sugar Association, Inc. The Sugar Association, Inc. had no restrictions regarding publication.
• Author Disclosures: LR and LD as independent consultants provide nutrition and regulatory consulting to various food manufacturers, commodity groups and health organizations. VLF III as Vice President of Nutrition Impact, LLC conducts NHANES analyses for numerous members of the food, beverage and dietary supplement industry. PCG and MOS are employed by The Sugar Association, Inc.