The fuss over the slight downtick in obesity prevalence

What started all this was this graph of obesity prevalence in the US from the Financial Times:

The most complete account of what happened next comes from Helena Bottemiller Evich in Food Fix (a must-read for anyone interested in following the food scene): “Have we passed peak obesity? New data sparks speculation.”

The Financial Times was the first to pick up on new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showing that the obesity rate for U.S. adults declined two percentage points between 2020 and 2023. The headline from across the pond was upbeat: “We may have passed peak obesity.” Soon, a couple of other news outlets followed, including Axios: “Americans are getting healthier by some key metrics.” The Washington Post editorial board jumped into the fray this week as well: “The obesity rate might have stopped growing. Here’s what could be working.”

The original data came from the CDC:

Plotted this way, the decline is not nearly so impressive (and severe obesity is increasing slightly).

As for the effect of the drugs, it’s much too early to say, says the epidemiologist Deirdre Tobias posting on Twitter (X).

The downtick occurred before the drugs were widely used.  Following her thread produces lots more data on that point.

We will have to wait a few more years to know how all this will play out.  I can’t wait!